Montpellier vs Grenoble
Our model puts a Montpellier win at 48.2% in this Ligue 2 fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.49 to 1.01.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,656 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 46.9% of the time — 512 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 2.6 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Montpellier at 1.61, which implies about 62.1%. Our model has it at 48.2% — 13.9 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
Evenly rated
There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1486 against 1474, a gap of 12 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.
Finding the target
Montpellier hits the target more often than almost anyone: 43.2% of their shots are on goal over their last matches; Grenoble struggles to hit the target: 25.3% of their shots are on goal over their last matches. The average across the sides we have figures for is 34.1%. Accuracy is not the same as scoring — it says how much of a side's shooting is worth a goalkeeper's attention, which is the part that does not swing as wildly from week to week as goals do.
How often they shoot
Grenoble manage 8.2 shots a match, against an average of 11.8. A side that shoots this rarely has to take what it gets, which makes its scoring lumpier than its quality.
Behind the defence
79.2% of the shots on target Montpellier face do not end up in the net, against 67.9% for the sides we measure. That is a keeper and a defence having a good run of it — and a figure that tends to drift back toward the middle, which is worth remembering before reading too much into it.