Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen
Our model puts a Borussia Dortmund win at 75.7% in this Bundesliga fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 2.51 to 0.71.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,656 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 75% and 85% came in 84.9% of the time — 53 fixtures in that band. That is 5.9 points above what the model claimed — it has been too cautious in this range, which is the more comfortable error and still an error.
The ratings gap
Borussia Dortmund carry a rating of 1854 against 1647 for Werder Bremen, a gap of 207 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Borussia Dortmund's attack should find room against Werder Bremen's defence, by 258 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Borussia Dortmund are on a run
Borussia Dortmund arrive on 8 straight wins, part of 8 matches unbeaten. Form of that length moves our rating on its own, so it is already reflected in the numbers above rather than being an argument on top of them.
Early or late
75% of Werder Bremen's goals have come after the break, against 57.1% for the sides we measure, over 16 goals. A side that scores this late is usually one that grows into matches or finishes them stronger than it starts — and one whose half-time score says less than usual about the result.
Behind the defence
59.6% of the shots on target Werder Bremen face do not end up in the net, against 67.9% for the sides we measure. That is low enough to matter, and it is the kind of number that flatters or punishes a side's record without saying much about how it plays.
A high-scoring home side
One model here does nothing but estimate how likely the home side is to score four goals or more, and on this fixture it reads 76%. Across our settled fixtures that happens about 8% of the time, so this is well above ordinary. It says nothing about who wins — a side can score four and still be caught — but a match where one team is expected to run up a total is one where the scoreline is much harder to call than the result.