1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs Kaiserslautern
Our model puts a 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win at 47.4% in this 2. Bundesliga fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.53 to 1.09.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,656 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 46.9% of the time — 512 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 2.6 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, 1. FC Heidenheim 1846's attack should find room against Kaiserslautern's defence, by 122 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.