Cruzeiro vs São Paulo
Our model puts a Cruzeiro win at 68.3% in this Brasileirao fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 2.37 to 0.93.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,627 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 65% and 75% came in 70.9% of the time — 141 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 69.3%, so the two are within 1.7 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Cruzeiro at 1.87, which implies about 53.5%. Our model has it at 68.3% — 14.8 points higher. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.