Vitória vs Chapecoense
Our model puts a Vitória win at 67.4% in this Brasileirao fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 2.16 to 0.82.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,639 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 65% and 75% came in 69.9% of the time — 146 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 69.3%, so the two are within 0.6 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Evenly rated
There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1482 against 1463, a gap of 20 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.