United States vs Canada

Wednesday, 7 October 2026 at 00:00

📅This match has already taken place. The predictions above were generated before kick-off.

Win probability

56%

United States wins

24%

Draw

20%

Canada wins

xG Home

1.76

United States

Blowout %

57%

Dominant win

xG Away

0.93

Canada

Analysis

Our model puts an United States win at 56.4% in this Int: Friendly fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.76 to 0.93.

Attack against defence

The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, United States's attack should find room against Canada's defence, by 118 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.

United States are on a run

United States arrive on 3 straight wins, part of 3 matches unbeaten. Form of that length moves our rating on its own, so it is already reflected in the numbers above rather than being an argument on top of them.

Market odds

1.80

United States

3.90

Draw

4.10

Canada

Published 7 October 2026 · aleavici-football

Signed export