South Korea vs Uzbekistan

Tuesday, 6 October 2026 at 11:00

📅This match has already taken place. The predictions above were generated before kick-off.

Win probability

58%

South Korea wins

23%

Draw

19%

Uzbekistan wins

xG Home

1.77

South Korea

Blowout %

58%

Dominant win

xG Away

0.89

Uzbekistan

Analysis

Our model puts a South Korea win at 57.8% in this Int: Friendly fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.77 to 0.89.

Attack against defence

The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, South Korea's attack should find room against Uzbekistan's defence, by 91 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.

Uzbekistan are off their season peak

Uzbekistan peaked at 1661 this season and sit at 1609 today, 52 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.

Market odds

1.67

South Korea

4.00

Draw

4.80

Uzbekistan

Published 7 October 2026 · aleavici-football

Signed export