Moldova vs Slovakia
Our model puts a Slovakia win at 69.5% in this Int: UEFA Nations League fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 0.67 to 2.08.
The ratings gap
Slovakia carry a rating of 1600 against 1342 for Moldova, a gap of 258 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Slovakia's attack should find room against Moldova's defence, by 215 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Slovakia are hard to beat
Slovakia have gone 6 matches without losing, though without stringing wins together. That pattern tends to push draw probability up more than it pushes a win probability.
Moldova are off their season peak
Moldova peaked at 1500 this season and sit at 1342 today, 158 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.