Luxembourg vs Bulgaria
Our model puts a Bulgaria win at 49.7% in this Int: UEFA Nations League fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 0.97 to 1.51.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Luxembourg at 2.15, which implies about 46.5%. Our model has it at 24.3% — 22.2 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
The ratings gap
Bulgaria carry a rating of 1494 against 1357 for Luxembourg, a gap of 138 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Luxembourg are off their season peak
Luxembourg peaked at 1500 this season and sit at 1357 today, 143 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.