Jordan vs Venezuela

Tuesday, 6 October 2026 at 17:00

📅This match has already taken place. The predictions above were generated before kick-off.

Win probability

38%

Jordan wins

27%

Draw

35%

Venezuela wins

xG Home

1.27

Jordan

Blowout %

31%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.20

Venezuela

Analysis

Our model puts a Jordan win at 38% in this Int: Friendly fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.27 to 1.2.

Where we disagree with the market

Bookmakers price Jordan at 2.0, which implies about 50%. Our model has it at 38% — 12 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.

Market odds

2.00

Jordan

3.45

Draw

3.75

Venezuela

Published 7 October 2026 · aleavici-football

Signed export