China vs Tajikistan
Our model puts a China win at 62.6% in this Int: Friendly fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 1.91 to 0.82.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Tajikistan at 4.4, which implies about 22.7%. Our model has it at 15.6% — 7.1 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
A high-scoring home side
One model here does nothing but estimate how likely the home side is to score four goals or more, and on this fixture it reads 77.7%. Across our settled fixtures that happens about 8% of the time, so this is well above ordinary. It says nothing about who wins — a side can score four and still be caught — but a match where one team is expected to run up a total is one where the scoreline is much harder to call than the result.