Algeria vs Niger
Our model puts an Algeria win at 40.3% in this Int: Friendly fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.11 to 0.9.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Algeria at 1.22, which implies about 82%. Our model has it at 40.3% — 41.7 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
The ratings gap
Algeria carry a rating of 1706 against 1421 for Niger, a gap of 285 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Algeria's attack should find room against Niger's defence, by 244 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Niger are off their season peak
Niger peaked at 1500 this season and sit at 1421 today, 79 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.