● aleavici-football · v1.0-xgboost · 6 October 2026
Int: UEFA Nations League
Ukraine vs Hungary
Monday, 5 October 2026 at 18:45
📅This match has already taken place. The predictions above were generated before kick-off.
Win probability
49%
Ukraine wins
25%
Draw
26%
Hungary wins
xG Home
1.57
Ukraine
Blowout %
48%
Dominant win
xG Away
1.06
Hungary
Analysis
Our model puts an Ukraine win at 48.9% in this Int: UEFA Nations League fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.57 to 1.06.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Hungary at 2.85, which implies about 35.1%. Our model has it at 25.8% — 9.3 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
Market odds
2.50
Ukraine
3.00
Draw
2.85
Hungary
Published 6 October 2026 · aleavici-football
Signed export