Uganda vs Congo DR

Monday, 5 October 2026 at 13:00

📅This match has already taken place. The predictions above were generated before kick-off.

Win probability

39%

Uganda wins

27%

Draw

35%

Congo DR wins

xG Home

1.31

Uganda

Blowout %

34%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.22

Congo DR

Analysis

Our model puts an Uganda win at 38.6% in this Int: Friendly fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.31 to 1.22.

Where we disagree with the market

Bookmakers price Congo DR at 1.87, which implies about 53.5%. Our model has it at 34.5% — 19 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.

Attack against defence

The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Uganda's attack will struggle to break down Congo DR's defence, by 114 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.

Market odds

3.10

Uganda

4.90

Draw

1.87

Congo DR

Published 6 October 2026 · aleavici-football

Signed export