Rwanda vs Kenya
Our model puts a Kenya win at 38% in this Int: Friendly fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.27 to 1.32.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Rwanda at 2.4, which implies about 41.7%. Our model has it at 35.5% — 6.2 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
Evenly rated
There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1457 against 1485, a gap of 28 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Rwanda's attack will struggle to break down Kenya's defence, by 114 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Kenya are hard to beat
Kenya have gone 6 matches without losing, though without stringing wins together. That pattern tends to push draw probability up more than it pushes a win probability.