Romania vs Sweden

Monday, 5 October 2026 at 18:45

📅This match has already taken place. The predictions above were generated before kick-off.

Win probability

25%

Romania wins

25%

Draw

50%

Sweden wins

xG Home

1.10

Romania

Blowout %

25%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.66

Sweden

Analysis

Our model puts a Sweden win at 50.2% in this Int: UEFA Nations League fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.1 to 1.66.

Where we disagree with the market

Bookmakers price Sweden at 1.77, which implies about 56.5%. Our model has it at 50.2% — 6.3 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.

Attack against defence

The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Sweden's attack should find room against Romania's defence, by 120 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.

Market odds

3.95

Romania

3.85

Draw

1.77

Sweden

Published 6 October 2026 · aleavici-football

Signed export