Northern Ireland vs Georgia
Our model puts a Northern Ireland win at 50.4% in this Int: UEFA Nations League fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.58 to 1.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Northern Ireland at 2.45, which implies about 40.8%. Our model has it at 50.4% — 9.6 points higher. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
Evenly rated
There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1532 against 1533, a gap of 1 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.