Mauritius vs Sri Lanka

Monday, 5 October 2026 at 15:00

📅This match has already taken place. The predictions above were generated before kick-off.

Win probability

59%

Mauritius wins

23%

Draw

18%

Sri Lanka wins

xG Home

1.76

Mauritius

Blowout %

59%

Dominant win

xG Away

0.84

Sri Lanka

Analysis

Our model puts a Mauritius win at 58.8% in this Int: Friendly fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.76 to 0.84.

Attack against defence

The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Sri Lanka's attack will struggle to break down Mauritius's defence, by 99 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.

Mauritius are off their season peak

Mauritius peaked at 1500 this season and sit at 1332 today, 168 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.

Published 6 October 2026 · aleavici-football

Signed export