Córdoba vs Tenerife
Our model puts a Córdoba win at 46.7% in this Segunda Division fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.54 to 1.12.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,601 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 46.2% of the time — 487 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 3.3 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Finding the target
Tenerife struggles to hit the target: 25.4% of their shots are on goal over their last matches. The average across the sides we have figures for is 33.9%. Accuracy is not the same as scoring — it says how much of a side's shooting is worth a goalkeeper's attention, which is the part that does not swing as wildly from week to week as goals do.
How often they shoot
Córdoba take 18.5 shots a match against an average of 11.8. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.
A disciplinary record worth knowing
Tenerife collect 3.4 cards a match, on 14.7 fouls a match, against an average of 2.2. Cards are the one thing here that can change a match rather than describe it: a sending-off rewrites every number on this page.
Behind the defence
58.7% of the shots on target Córdoba face do not end up in the net, against 67.5% for the sides we measure. That is low enough to matter, and it is the kind of number that flatters or punishes a side's record without saying much about how it plays.