Bosnia-Herzegovina vs Poland

Monday, 5 October 2026 at 18:45

📅This match has already taken place. The predictions above were generated before kick-off.

Win probability

31%

Bosnia-Herzegovina wins

26%

Draw

43%

Poland wins

xG Home

1.17

Bosnia-Herzegovina

Blowout %

32%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.42

Poland

Analysis

Our model puts a Poland win at 42.6% in this Int: UEFA Nations League fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.17 to 1.42.

Attack against defence

The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Poland's attack should find room against Bosnia-Herzegovina's defence, by 142 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.

Market odds

2.85

Bosnia-Herzegovina

3.30

Draw

2.35

Poland

Published 6 October 2026 · aleavici-football

Signed export