Wales vs Denmark

Sunday, 4 October 2026 at 18:45

📅This match has already taken place. The predictions above were generated before kick-off.

Win probability

28%

Wales wins

26%

Draw

46%

Denmark wins

xG Home

1.14

Wales

Blowout %

28%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.54

Denmark

Analysis

Our model puts a Denmark win at 46.4% in this Int: UEFA Nations League fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.14 to 1.54.

The ratings gap

Denmark carry a rating of 1714 against 1602 for Wales, a gap of 112 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.

Attack against defence

The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Wales's attack will struggle to break down Denmark's defence, by 111 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.

Market odds

3.65

Wales

3.40

Draw

1.95

Denmark

Published 5 October 2026 · aleavici-football

Signed export