United States vs Mexico

Sunday, 4 October 2026 at 02:00

📅This match has already taken place. The predictions above were generated before kick-off.

Win probability

38%

United States wins

27%

Draw

35%

Mexico wins

xG Home

1.33

United States

Blowout %

39%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.26

Mexico

Analysis

Our model puts an United States win at 38.4% in this Int: Friendly fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.33 to 1.26.

Where we disagree with the market

Bookmakers price Mexico at 2.4, which implies about 41.7%. Our model has it at 35.1% — 6.6 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.

Market odds

2.80

United States

3.50

Draw

2.40

Mexico

Published 4 October 2026 · aleavici-football

Signed export