Sporting Gijón vs RC Celta Fortuna

Sunday, 4 October 2026 at 14:15

📅This match has already taken place. The predictions above were generated before kick-off.

Win probability

68%

Sporting Gijón wins

19%

Draw

13%

RC Celta Fortuna wins

xG Home

2.27

Sporting Gijón

Blowout %

58%

Dominant win

xG Away

0.88

RC Celta Fortuna

Analysis

Our model puts a Sporting Gijón win at 67.9% in this Segunda Division fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 2.27 to 0.88.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,601 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 65% and 75% came in 69.9% of the time — 136 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 69.3%, so the two are within 0.5 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Published 5 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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