Sporting de Alcázar vs CP Talayuela

Sunday, 4 October 2026 at 15:30

📅This match has already taken place. The predictions above were generated before kick-off.

Win probability

53%

Sporting de Alcázar wins

22%

Draw

26%

CP Talayuela wins

xG Home

2.05

Sporting de Alcázar

Blowout %

59%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.37

CP Talayuela

Analysis

Our model puts a Sporting de Alcázar win at 52.5% in this Copa del Rey fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 2.05 to 1.37.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,601 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 46% of the time — 489 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.6%, so the two are within 3.6 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Evenly rated

There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1506 against 1494, a gap of 11 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.

Published 5 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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