Republic of Ireland vs Israel

Sunday, 4 October 2026 at 18:45

📅This match has already taken place. The predictions above were generated before kick-off.

Win probability

60%

Republic of Ireland wins

24%

Draw

17%

Israel wins

xG Home

1.73

Republic of Ireland

Blowout %

57%

Dominant win

xG Away

0.79

Israel

Analysis

Our model puts a Republic of Ireland win at 59.5% in this Int: UEFA Nations League fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.73 to 0.79.

Where we disagree with the market

Bookmakers price Israel at 3.25, which implies about 30.8%. Our model has it at 16.9% — 13.9 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.

Market odds

2.10

Republic of Ireland

3.40

Draw

3.25

Israel

Published 5 October 2026 · aleavici-football

Signed export