Real Sociedad II vs Granada
Our model puts a Real Sociedad II win at 41.4% in this Segunda Division fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.38 to 1.18.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,601 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.3% of the time — 611 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.5%, so the two are within 2.2 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Evenly rated
There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1484 against 1509, a gap of 25 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.
Early or late
71.4% of Granada's goals have come after the break, against 57.1% for the sides we measure, over 14 goals. A side that scores this late is usually one that grows into matches or finishes them stronger than it starts — and one whose half-time score says less than usual about the result.