Morocco vs Mali
Our model puts a Morocco win at 69.3% in this Int: Friendly fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 2.06 to 0.67.
The ratings gap
Morocco carry a rating of 1795 against 1615 for Mali, a gap of 180 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Mali's attack will struggle to break down Morocco's defence, by 171 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
A high-scoring home side
One model here does nothing but estimate how likely the home side is to score four goals or more, and on this fixture it reads 63.5%. Across our settled fixtures that happens about 8% of the time, so this is well above ordinary. It says nothing about who wins — a side can score four and still be caught — but a match where one team is expected to run up a total is one where the scoreline is much harder to call than the result.