Kyrgyz Republic vs Lebanon

Sunday, 4 October 2026 at 14:00

📅This match has already taken place. The predictions above were generated before kick-off.

Win probability

26%

Kyrgyz Republic wins

23%

Draw

51%

Lebanon wins

xG Home

1.26

Kyrgyz Republic

Blowout %

49%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.85

Lebanon

Analysis

Our model puts a Lebanon win at 50.7% in this Int: Friendly fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.26 to 1.85.

Where we disagree with the market

Bookmakers price Lebanon at 3.75, which implies about 26.7%. Our model has it at 50.7% — 24 points higher. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.

Evenly rated

There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1488 against 1475, a gap of 14 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.

Market odds

2.05

Kyrgyz Republic

3.30

Draw

3.75

Lebanon

Published 5 October 2026 · aleavici-football

Signed export