Kosovo vs Austria

Sunday, 4 October 2026 at 16:00

📅This match has already taken place. The predictions above were generated before kick-off.

Win probability

24%

Kosovo wins

25%

Draw

51%

Austria wins

xG Home

1.00

Kosovo

Blowout %

24%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.57

Austria

Analysis

Our model puts an Austria win at 50.5% in this Int: UEFA Nations League fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1 to 1.57.

The ratings gap

Austria carry a rating of 1678 against 1545 for Kosovo, a gap of 133 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.

Attack against defence

The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Austria's attack should find room against Kosovo's defence, by 152 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.

Market odds

3.40

Kosovo

3.40

Draw

2.05

Austria

Published 5 October 2026 · aleavici-football

Signed export