Greece vs Germany
Our model puts a Germany win at 48.9% in this Int: UEFA Nations League fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.02 to 1.53.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Germany at 1.8, which implies about 55.6%. Our model has it at 48.9% — 6.7 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
The ratings gap
Germany carry a rating of 1772 against 1644 for Greece, a gap of 128 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Germany's attack should find room against Greece's defence, by 168 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.