Girona vs Mallorca
Our model puts a Girona win at 44.8% in this Segunda Division fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.43 to 1.09.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,601 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.3% of the time — 611 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.5%, so the two are within 2.2 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Mallorca at 2.85, which implies about 35.1%. Our model has it at 28.7% — 6.4 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
Evenly rated
There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1632 against 1636, a gap of 5 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.
How often they shoot
Girona take 15.8 shots a match against an average of 11.8. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.