Egypt vs South Africa

Sunday, 4 October 2026 at 18:00

📅This match has already taken place. The predictions above were generated before kick-off.

Win probability

62%

Egypt wins

22%

Draw

16%

South Africa wins

xG Home

1.87

Egypt

Blowout %

59%

Dominant win

xG Away

0.82

South Africa

Analysis

Our model puts an Egypt win at 61.8% in this Int: Friendly fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 1.87 to 0.82.

The ratings gap

Egypt carry a rating of 1711 against 1610 for South Africa, a gap of 101 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.

Attack against defence

The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, South Africa's attack will struggle to break down Egypt's defence, by 96 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.

Market odds

1.71

Egypt

3.65

Draw

4.90

South Africa

Published 5 October 2026 · aleavici-football

Signed export