Comoros vs Senegal
Our model puts a Senegal win at 66.6% in this Int: Friendly fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 0.81 to 2.1.
The ratings gap
Senegal carry a rating of 1703 against 1449 for Comoros, a gap of 254 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Senegal's attack should find room against Comoros's defence, by 260 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Comoros are off their season peak
Comoros peaked at 1500 this season and sit at 1449 today, 51 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.