Boca Juniors vs Unión (Santa Fe)
Our model puts a Boca Juniors win at 63.6% in this Liga Profesional Argentina fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 2.32 to 1.09.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,492 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 50.4% of the time — 276 fixtures in that band. That is 9.2 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price the draw at 3.8, which implies about 26.3%. Our model has it at 19.3% — 7 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
Evenly rated
There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1516 against 1492, a gap of 24 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.
Boca Juniors are hard to beat
Boca Juniors have gone 9 matches without losing, though without stringing wins together. That pattern tends to push draw probability up more than it pushes a win probability.