Atlético Unión Güímar vs Sporting Hortaleza
Our model puts a Sporting Hortaleza win at 40.9% in this Copa del Rey fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.55 to 1.68.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,601 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.3% of the time — 611 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.5%, so the two are within 2.2 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Evenly rated
There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1496 against 1504, a gap of 9 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.