Atlético Melilla vs Atlético Pinatarense

Sunday, 4 October 2026 at 10:00

📅This match has already taken place. The predictions above were generated before kick-off.

Win probability

27%

Atlético Melilla wins

22%

Draw

51%

Atlético Pinatarense wins

xG Home

1.44

Atlético Melilla

Blowout %

45%

Dominant win

xG Away

2.05

Atlético Pinatarense

Analysis

Our model puts an Atlético Pinatarense win at 51.1% in this Copa del Rey fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.44 to 2.05.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,521 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 46.1% of the time — 464 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 3.4 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Evenly rated

There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1486 against 1504, a gap of 18 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.

Published 3 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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