AE Prat vs CF San Rafael
Our model puts an AE Prat win at 55.1% in this Copa del Rey fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 2.17 to 1.35.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,601 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 51.7% of the time — 300 fixtures in that band. That is 7.9 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
Evenly rated
There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1506 against 1494, a gap of 11 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.
A high-scoring home side
One model here does nothing but estimate how likely the home side is to score four goals or more, and on this fixture it reads 91.5%. Across our settled fixtures that happens about 8% of the time, so this is well above ordinary. It says nothing about who wins — a side can score four and still be caught — but a match where one team is expected to run up a total is one where the scoreline is much harder to call than the result.