Wigan Athletic vs Mansfield Town
Our model puts a Wigan Athletic win at 44.2% in this League One fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.46 to 1.15.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,432 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 39.4% of the time — 545 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.5%, so the two are within 1.1 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Evenly rated
There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1492 against 1513, a gap of 22 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.