Walsall vs Crawley Town
Our model puts a Walsall win at 66.2% in this League Two fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 1.95 to 0.71.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,432 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 65% and 75% came in 72.2% of the time — 126 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 69.3%, so the two are within 2.9 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
The ratings gap
Walsall carry a rating of 1466 against 1367 for Crawley Town, a gap of 100 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Walsall are hard to beat
Walsall have gone 9 matches without losing, though without stringing wins together. That pattern tends to push draw probability up more than it pushes a win probability.
Crawley Town are off their season peak
Crawley Town peaked at 1500 this season and sit at 1367 today, 133 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.
Early or late
75% of Crawley Town's goals have come after the break, against 57.1% for the sides we measure, over 12 goals. A side that scores this late is usually one that grows into matches or finishes them stronger than it starts — and one whose half-time score says less than usual about the result.
Behind the defence
76.1% of the shots on target Crawley Town face do not end up in the net, against 67.7% for the sides we measure. That is a keeper and a defence having a good run of it — and a figure that tends to drift back toward the middle, which is worth remembering before reading too much into it.