Sri Lanka vs Djibouti

Saturday, 3 October 2026 at 18:00

📅This match has already taken place. The predictions above were generated before kick-off.

Win probability

60%

Sri Lanka wins

23%

Draw

18%

Djibouti wins

xG Home

1.84

Sri Lanka

Blowout %

43%

Dominant win

xG Away

0.88

Djibouti

Analysis

Our model puts a Sri Lanka win at 59.6% in this Int: Friendly fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.84 to 0.88.

Evenly rated

There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1260 against 1261, a gap of 1 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.

Sri Lanka are off their season peak

Sri Lanka peaked at 1500 this season and sit at 1260 today, 240 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.

Published 3 October 2026 · aleavici-football

Signed export