Salford City vs Fleetwood Town
Our model puts a Salford City win at 54.4% in this League Two fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.68 to 0.94.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,564 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 45.4% of the time — 476 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.6%, so the two are within 4.2 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Salford City at 1.65, which implies about 60.6%. Our model has it at 54.4% — 6.2 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
How often they shoot
Fleetwood Town take 15.1 shots a match against an average of 11.8. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.