● aleavici-football · v1.0-xgboost · 4 October 2026
Int: Friendly
Russia vs Namibia
Saturday, 3 October 2026 at 15:00
📅This match has already taken place. The predictions above were generated before kick-off.
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High-scoring home side90% chance Russia score four or more. It happens in about 8% of fixtures, and says nothing about who wins.
Win probability
94%
Russia wins
5%
Draw
1%
Namibia wins
xG Home
4.47
Russia
Blowout %
90%
Dominant win
xG Away
0.46
Namibia
Analysis
Our model puts a Russia win at 94.1% in this Int: Friendly fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 4.47 to 0.46.
A high-scoring home side
One model here does nothing but estimate how likely the home side is to score four goals or more, and on this fixture it reads 89.6%. Across our settled fixtures that happens about 8% of the time, so this is well above ordinary. It says nothing about who wins — a side can score four and still be caught — but a match where one team is expected to run up a total is one where the scoreline is much harder to call than the result.
Published 4 October 2026 · aleavici-football
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