Reading vs Bradford City
Our model puts a Reading win at 43% in this League One fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.38 to 1.11.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,564 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 37.8% of the time — 601 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.5%, so the two are within 2.8 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Finding the target
Reading struggles to hit the target: 26.6% of their shots are on goal over their last matches. The average across the sides we have figures for is 34%. Accuracy is not the same as scoring — it says how much of a side's shooting is worth a goalkeeper's attention, which is the part that does not swing as wildly from week to week as goals do.