North Macedonia vs Scotland

Saturday, 3 October 2026 at 18:45

📅This match has already taken place. The predictions above were generated before kick-off.

Win probability

27%

North Macedonia wins

26%

Draw

47%

Scotland wins

xG Home

1.09

North Macedonia

Blowout %

27%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.54

Scotland

Analysis

Our model puts a Scotland win at 47.3% in this Int: UEFA Nations League fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.09 to 1.54.

Where we disagree with the market

Bookmakers price Scotland at 1.65, which implies about 60.6%. Our model has it at 47.3% — 13.3 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.

Market odds

5.50

North Macedonia

3.50

Draw

1.65

Scotland

Published 4 October 2026 · aleavici-football

Signed export