Leyton Orient vs Plymouth Argyle
Our model puts a Leyton Orient win at 39.9% in this League One fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.4 to 1.27.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,564 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 37.8% of the time — 601 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.5%, so the two are within 2.8 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Plymouth Argyle at 2.15, which implies about 46.5%. Our model has it at 34.1% — 12.4 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.