● aleavici-football · v1.0-xgboost · 4 October 2026
Int: Friendly
India vs Brazil
Saturday, 3 October 2026 at 14:00
📅This match has already taken place. The predictions above were generated before kick-off.
Win probability
10%
India wins
18%
Draw
73%
Brazil wins
xG Home
0.66
India
Blowout %
13%
Dominant win
xG Away
2.25
Brazil
Analysis
Our model puts a Brazil win at 72.9% in this Int: Friendly fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 0.66 to 2.25.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price the draw at 21.0, which implies about 4.8%. Our model has it at 17.5% — 12.7 points higher. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
Market odds
61.00
India
21.00
Draw
1.00
Brazil
Published 4 October 2026 · aleavici-football
Signed export