Iceland vs Bulgaria

Saturday, 3 October 2026 at 16:00

📅This match has already taken place. The predictions above were generated before kick-off.

Win probability

51%

Iceland wins

25%

Draw

24%

Bulgaria wins

xG Home

1.58

Iceland

Blowout %

49%

Dominant win

xG Away

0.98

Bulgaria

Analysis

Our model puts an Iceland win at 51% in this Int: UEFA Nations League fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.58 to 0.98.

Where we disagree with the market

Bookmakers price Iceland at 1.45, which implies about 69%. Our model has it at 51% — 18 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.

Market odds

1.45

Iceland

4.30

Draw

6.50

Bulgaria

Published 4 October 2026 · aleavici-football

Signed export