Finland vs Albania

Saturday, 3 October 2026 at 13:00

📅This match has already taken place. The predictions above were generated before kick-off.

Win probability

49%

Finland wins

26%

Draw

26%

Albania wins

xG Home

1.52

Finland

Blowout %

34%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.02

Albania

Analysis

Our model puts a Finland win at 48.5% in this Int: UEFA Nations League fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.52 to 1.02.

Where we disagree with the market

Bookmakers price the draw at 3.0, which implies about 33.3%. Our model has it at 25.9% — 7.4 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.

Market odds

2.30

Finland

3.00

Draw

3.20

Albania

Published 4 October 2026 · aleavici-football

Signed export