Estonia vs Luxembourg

Saturday, 3 October 2026 at 16:00

📅This match has already taken place. The predictions above were generated before kick-off.

Win probability

56%

Estonia wins

24%

Draw

20%

Luxembourg wins

xG Home

1.69

Estonia

Blowout %

44%

Dominant win

xG Away

0.88

Luxembourg

Analysis

Our model puts an Estonia win at 56.2% in this Int: UEFA Nations League fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.69 to 0.88.

Where we disagree with the market

Bookmakers price Estonia at 2.9, which implies about 34.5%. Our model has it at 56.2% — 21.7 points higher. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.

Market odds

2.90

Estonia

2.85

Draw

2.60

Luxembourg

Published 4 October 2026 · aleavici-football

Signed export