Defensa y Justicia vs San Lorenzo
Our model puts a Defensa y Justicia win at 55.7% in this Liga Profesional Argentina fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.85 to 1.05.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,564 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 52.1% of the time — 290 fixtures in that band. That is 7.5 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price the draw at 3.0, which implies about 33.3%. Our model has it at 22.9% — 10.4 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.